Ravichandran Ashwin made his Test debut in 2011 against West Indies, and made a mark for himself in the very first match picking up 9 wickets in the match. After such an authoritative debut, he hasn’t looked back since then. 365 Test wickets at 25.43 apiece signify the value he’s added to the Indian Test team.
It’s a no-brainer to guess that he is the fastest Indian bowler to reach the 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, and 350 wickets mark in Test cricket in terms of number of innings. Ashwin, though he’s been consistent every year, found his absolute mojo in 2016. That year, he picked up 72 wickets in 12 Test matches and even became the third Indian to win the ICC Cricketer of the Year award.
When the former Indian spinner, Harbhajan Singh, was asked in an interview by India today– whether Ashwin will break his 417 Test wickets record and achieve the milestone of 600 Test wickets, his response was:
“I am not sure about 600 wickets, but 417 is very close. The way he is going, he can definitely achieve that 400-wicket mark and can get to 500 wickets. 600 Test wickets is very far, but if he has to achieve that, he has to keep himself very fit and prolong his career. I think if he is fit, he can achieve anything,”
Along with 401 wickets in 77 Test matches, Ashwin has picked up 150 ODI wickets and 52 T20I wickets in 111 and 46 matches, respectively. But its been 3 years since Ashwin last played an LOI (Limited Overs International) match, and it’s highly unlikely for him to make a comeback to the Indian side in coloured jersey. So, it’s understandable that all of Ashwin’s future international wickets will be in the longest format of the game.
That makes us thought of letting out a prediction blog on the final number of wickets, Ravichandran Ashwin might end up in Test cricket, and here we are!
Predicting Ashwin’s Total Test Wickets
Ever since making his Test debut in 2011, Ashwin has gone from strength to strength managing to play 77 Test matches so far. In those 77 Tests, Ashwin has bowled in 144 innings while picking up 401 wickets. Dividing his total wickets by the number of innings (401÷144), we figured out that Ashwin picks up 2.8 wickets per innings.
The next important factor in predicting the number of wickets he’ll pick is the number of matches he’ll end up playing from now on.
Ashwin is currently 34 years old. I guess he’ll play for 4 more years at most i.e., till 2025.
Since the Test championship has given greater worth to the Test format than ever before, ICC is expected to continue with that. If that happens and our assumption of him playing till 2025 goes right, Ashwin will have the opportunity to play in 2021-23 season and 2023-25 season as well. Team India was scheduled to play in 18 matches in the 2021 season of the Test championship, so we’ll take that as the number of matches India might play in the following seasons too. With that being said and with the current schedule, India will play approximately 40 more Test matches till the end of 2025.
Now, let’s consider the number of innings Ashwin might bowl in. We’re taking 70 considering the fact that he might not play each and every match, and there can be cases of the team being defeated by innings (a rare occasion though for the current Indian squad).
Here is a statistic record for captains with the ‘Most Innings win in Test cricket.’
We had initially calculated that Ashwin takes 2.8 wickets per innings, but we’ll take 2.5 as his rate of wickets per innings in future as he’s aging and there has been significant effectiveness in the Indian pace bowling attack in overseas Tests. Also, we have Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel on the cards to compete for Ash’s wickets.
That is,
70*2.5 =175
So, as per our calculated prediction, Ashwin will take 175 Test wickets in the future before he retires.
Hence, as per our predictions at the end of his career, Ashwin will have a total of 576 Test wickets, which will be the second-highest for an Indian bowler.
Moreover, he has 29 five-wicket hauls and 7 10-wicket hauls in Test cricket. Calculating as per the aforementioned methods, he’ll pick 14 more 5W hauls and 3 more 10W hauls.
According to our calculated predictions and assumptions, Ashwin’s final test career stats might look like this:
Wickets: 576
5W Hauls: 41
10W Hauls: 10
Ashwin’s Verdict on Comparison with Anil Kumble
Comparison is a big part of our sport, and, right from his initial days, Ashwin was compared with Anil Kumble, the most successful Indian bowler and the third-highest wicket-taker in Test cricket (619 wickets). As per our predictions, it’s tough for Ashwin to surpass the imposing numbers of Kumble.
During the launch of Gen-Next Kings’ Cricket Academy in 2017, he was asked about his comparison with Anil Kumble and, in reply he was quoted saying,
“I am a big fan of Anil Kumble, and he has got 619 wickets and, if I get to 618 wickets, I will be very thankful too and, if I get to 618, that will be my last Test match.”
Conclusion
This is just an assumption completely based on the number of Wickets he has picked so far and the rate at what he delivers. But Ashwin, as one of the greatest learner of the game, can bring in lot of surprises and can get to the big numbers. We will have to just wait and see.
Ravi Ashwin surely has what it takes topple every top batsman in the world and, if he continues doing so, he’s certain to go down as one of the greatest Test match bowler ever.
